Alarming reports have appeared in media promising a severe winter

Britain’s official weather forecasters today poured cold water on media reports that the country was heading for one of the severest winters in years.

The Met Office said that, although there was a chance of below-average temperatures over the next three months, it could also be warmer than normal.

It said it was not possible to forecast accurately up to five days ahead.

The agency said recent press headlines were based on an outlook produced for contingency planners who have to deal with severe weather and the report is simply based on probabilities, a little like betting on a horse on a race.

The Met Office’s blog said: “It’s not currently scientifically possible to provide a detailed forecast over these long timescales.

“Instead, the outlook assesses the level of risk connected to five different scenarios for both temperature and rain or snowfall. It’s a bit like the science equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race.

“The current outlook for December-January-February says the chance of the coldest scenario happening is between 20 and 25 per cent and the chances that the period will fall into the warmest scenario is between 10 and 15 per cent.

“So while uncertainty is quite large, below average temperatures are more likely than above average.”

The Met Office said average maximum temperatures for the UK in winter are about 6.6C and average minimum temps are about 0.9C.

“However, as with any horse race, it’s always possible that the favourite won’t win – so these probability scenarios have to be used in the right context,” the blog said. “This is why they’re useful for contingency planners who plan ahead based on risk, but not that useful for the general public.”

It said it is working to improve longer range forecasting, but it’s not currently possible to forecast snow or exact temperatures three months ahead.

Forecasters at the Exeter-based agency said Britain is likely to see settled weather and fairly normal temperatures into the first week of December before the chance of some colder, more changeable weather towards the end of next week.

“This may last a few days before giving way to milder and unsettled weather,” they said.

In mid- and late December, they believe temperatures are likely to remain near or slightly below average for the time of year, but otherwise fairly normal conditions for early winter are most likely.

“If there is any sign of significantly cold weather or disruptive snow in the forecast, we will keep the country up to date through our forecasts and warnings,” the Met Office said.

Mountain forecasts can be obtained from the Met Office and from the independent Mountain Weather Information Service.